Thursday, November 8, 2012

Why Governor Romney Lost; It's Not What You Think

Why Governor Romney Lost

Governor Romney lost the election because of a simple reason. He did not win enough votes.

It’s that simple, but not for the reasons you may think.

Forget the normal acrimony and second guessing. We know the odds were against the Governor from the beginning. Every campaign has its ups and downs. Decisions don't always work out, even with the Obama campaign.

The explanations for the loss have centered on the overwhelming African American vote for the President (93%), the Hispanic vote (71%), the youth vote age 19-30 (60%), the gender gap, the billion dollar campaign, the President’s successful ground game, Chicago Rules, the media bias, failure to respond to the scurrilous campaign against the Governor, the improving economy, the power of the incumbency, the War on Women,  the letting up in the last two debates and during Tropical Storm Sandy, and Governor’s Christie literal and figurative embrace of President Obama. They’re all true, but they don’t explain the loss.

Although the final tabulation is not in yet, President Obama won the election by about 2.6 million votes. Senator McCain in 2008 received about 2.8 million more votes than Governor Romney in 2012.

The Governor is generally assumed to have been a better candidate who ran a better campaign than the Senator. Yet the Senator received almost three million more votes than the Governor.

Had Governor Romney received the same vote total as Senator McCain, he would have at least won the popular vote, and possibly the battleground states. He could well have been the new President.

This was the year in which Republicans were supposed to turn out in droves to turn out the President. They didn’t.

What happened to the ground game?

Why didn’t the Republicans vote?

What happened to the Republican enthusiasm?

That’s the question we need answered.

Part of the Democratic Game Plan was to suppress the Republican vote.

Why did it work?

Why didn’t the Governor carry the coal counties in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia by greater margins?

That’s the second question we need answered.

Admittedly, the President’s vote total dropped by almost 10 million votes, the margin by which the President defeated Senator McCain in 2008.

The devastation in New Jersey and New York as well as a lower turnout in California may explain part of the drop, but these are Obama states.

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