Saturday, November 3, 2012

Early Keys to Tuesday's Election Results

Three days to go; it’s almost over. It’s possible we may not have to stay up through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning to know the outcome.

Several early state returns will hopefully tell us the next President Tuesday evening. Forget the exit polls, talking heads, spinmeisters and commentators.

Look first to Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. If President Obama sweeps the three, he wins reelection. If Governor Romney hits the trifecta, he will probably be the next President.

If they split, then the odds favor the President.

The next key is Pennsylvania. If the Governor pulls an upset in Pennsylvania, he wins the Presidency in a landslide. If Governor Romney carries Pennsylvania, then Ohio will be irrelevant.

The two keys to Pennsylvania will be the turnout in Philadelphia and the Republican margin in the 4 suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia. ”Walking around” money always creates a large Democratic majority in Philadelphia – a strong argument for Voter ID laws.

If Governor Romney wins big in the suburban counties of Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery, then he will have won the soccer mom vote. That augers well for the Governor nationally. The gender gap will not propel President Obama to victory.

The next step, if necessary, is to check the returns from Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) Counties. If the Cuyahoga vote is down and the Hamilton vote margin high for Governor Romney, then the Governor will carry Ohio and win the election - unless a curveball comes from the early voting numbers.

If the answer is still uncertain, go to bed and get some sleep.

The Republicans need to gain control of the Senate if they wish to carry out Governor Romney’s agenda if he wins. A three seat gain will result in a 50:50 split in the Senate with the tie to be broken by the Vice President.

The elections will be primarily local, unless there is a landslide in which case the Presidential coattails will sweep in many candidates.

The Senate races in Virginia, Massachusetts, and Connecticut are the key. President Obama will carry Massachusetts presumably by a large margin. If Senator Brown wins reelection, then Tuesday night may be good to Republicans.

If George Allen wins Virginia and Linda McMahon Connecticut, then the Republicans will probably take the Senate, regardless of Indiana and Missouri. A loss in all three could signal a Democratic gain in Senate seats, defying the odds.

Two Congressional elections in Florida will foretell if the Democrats significantly narrow the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. If Congressman Allan West loses to Patrick “Thanks Dad” Murphy, the Republicans are in trouble.

Former Democratic Congressman Alan Grayson was swept out of his Orlando seat two years ago. He is now running for an open seat, created by reapportionment, which favors Democrats. His return to Congress will add an acerbic, divisive voice to a Congress.

Send in the lawyers. If the election is close, then an army of attorneys will descend upon states looking for irregularities. 2,000 are already due in Ohio. The bad news for Democrats is that the election and legislative levers in most battleground states are in Republican hands as the result of the 2010 elections.

Here’s hoping the outcome of the presidential election will not depend upon a Florida recount.

I have two predictions for Tuesday.

First, I guarantee the next President will be a Harvard Law School graduate.

Second, Governor Romney wins, the Republicans hold the House and gain the Senate. 

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