Remember the classic line from the Godfather “I’ll make him
an offer he can’t refuse?”
What if President Obama is making the Republicans an offer
they can’t accept?
The assumption is that President Obama wants to avert the
fiscal cliff.
He won reelection, gained two Senate seats, and several
House seats. The President controls the Bully Pulpit. The mainstream media
supports him. Having just been reelected, he’s at the height of his political
power. He has the leverage.
The Republicans lost; they’re weakened.
They have more leverage than they think, but they lack the
voice to convey their message right now.
The budget is about to approach the borrowing limit. The Treasury may
run out of money in a few weeks.
The President and Senate Democrats want the lending cap
lifted as part of the deal. The House GOP has leverage.
The President has said he wants to increase revenues. The
way to do that is to grow the economy. A rising tide raises many a ship.
The President has shown no sign in four years of wanting to
grow the economy.
He wants to raise tax rates on the rich, defined as incomes
of $250,000 or more.
That will not raise revenues but contract the economy.
The tried and proven means to increase revenues is to lower
tax rates. It sounds counterintuitive, but the lowering of rates increases
economic activity
That has been proven by the Kennedy-Johnson tax cuts, the
Reagan tax cuts needed to stimulate the economy after the Carter debacle, and
the Bush tax cuts, which were a response the dot.com bust. Similarly, cuts in
capital gains taxes unleashed a flood of revenue.
President Obama again demanded earlier this week that the
Republicans approve the extension of the Bush Tax Cuts for all but those
earning $250,000 or more.
The Democrats and media are mounting a full court press
against the Republicans to prevent the fiscal cliff on January 1, 2013.
He has the Republicans on the horn of a dilemma. If they
agree to raise taxes on his terms, then they will once again become known as
the tax collectors for the welfare state. They will lose credibility with
voters and court revenge from the Tea Party. The base will rebel, but take it
out on the Republicans in two years rather than the Democrats, who might
otherwise prevent a repeat of 2010 since the Republicans will be the tarnished
politicians..
President George H. W. Bush lost reelection because he
raised taxes in spite of his “No new taxes” pledge.
If they don’t go along, and the economy slips into
recession, then the President and the media will cast blame on the Republicans.
If taxes are raised, the economy will go over the cliff.
Wait a moment; taxes are being raised. All the ObamaCare tax
increases will go into effect January 1, coupled with small business cutting
back employment.
President Obama has clearly demonstrated an ignorance of
basic economic principles.
He is genetically opposed to the wealthy, as indicated by
his famous response when told that the lowered capital gains tax generated
revenue. He said the rates had to rise for “fairness.”
He bad mouthed “fat cat bankers,” insurance companies,
doctors, and Big Oil. Unlike many demagogic politicians, he believes his
rhetoric. “You didn’t make it” was a Freudian slip that says it all.
What if the President doesn’t really want an agreement?
Taxes will rise automatically on January 1. Defense spending
will be sequestered; i.e. cut. The liberal Democrats love defense cuts.
Medicare cuts will ensue, but those will be blamed on
Republicans.
The President views himself in a win-win scenario, but the
Republican House controls the debt limit.