California is a one-party state after Tuesday's election.
California has 18 million registered voters. Less than 29.4%
are registered Republicans as the GOP becomes increasingly marginalized.
If Tuesday’s state legislative races end up as they look,
then California will officially become a one-party state. Democrats currently
hold all 8 statewide constitutional offices, and will hold at least 28 of the
40 state Senate seats and at least 55 of the 80 Assembly seats. One assembly
seat has not been decided, but the Democrats are leading in it.
If they win this Assembly seat, then they will have a
super-majority in the state legislature and proceed to ignore the Republican
representatives.
The Republicans also lost several Congressional seats, and
may be down to just 15 out of the 53 seat delegation. Two races remain
undecided, but the vote count favors the Democratic candidates.
A voter approved referendum requires all tax increases to
receive a 2/3 vote of each house for approval. A 2/3 vote will also override a
Governor’s veto. The new supermajority will reduce a Governor’s leverage in
threatening to veto bills.
The effect until the new legislative seats in January was
that the Democrats either had to negotiate with the Republicans or peel a few
off with any sort of promises.
Not any more, or at least until the 2014 mid-term elections.
The Democratic majority will ignore both the Republicans and
the voters and directly enact tax increases to plug their ever-enlarging budget
chasm, which is currently estimated at $18 billion.
They will have to impose ever increasing taxes because the
public employee unions will not let them cut expenditures where it will make a
difference: salaries, benefits, and pension plans.
The Democrats and the unions believe the answer to the
budgetary problems is tax increases. They and President Obama believe tax
increases are the key to prosperity.
They do not understand that you can tax more and more from
less and less until there is nothing left to tax.
The one-party government in California is not the Democratic
Party, but the public employee unions who control the Democratic Party.
The Legislature cannot raise taxes fast enough, especially
since each round of increases will drive more businesses out of the state,
reducing the overall business activity. Governor Davis raised taxes, and was
eventually recalled from office. Governor Schwarzenegger initially cut the
despised car tax, and then raised taxes. He sullied the Republican image.
Governor Brown is now raising taxes.
None of these sometimes massive tax increases solved the budget
problem.
It’s a spending problem – not a revenue problem.
The GOP didn’t realize it at the time, but its decline began
in 1990 when the Cold War ended. The state was hit with about 200,000 layoffs
in the aerospace industry and a major recession. About 1 million Californians
left the state, a large number of whom were Republicans.
The exodus has continued with an estimated net migration of
225,000 leaving the state on average in every year over the past decade. The
majority of these are Republicans.
California Dreaming is no longer a reality.
Democratic registration prior to the 1996 election was 47.2%
compared to 36.4% for the Republicans. The Democratic registration has dropped
3.5% since then to a current 43.7%, but the Republicans lost 7% from 36.4%.
The Republican political advantage has been steadily
slipping. even prior to the 2010 reapportionment. The 2010 midterm elections
witnessed a landslide nationally for Republicans, but not in California. The
Republicans did not gain a seat in Congress or the state legislature in 2010.
2012 after reapportionment promised to be a Republican
debacle. It was.
The decline continues, as does the exodus from the once
Golden State.
The pension time bomb is ticking.
Cities are going bankrupt.
Authorized bonds cannot be issued because the interest is
too high. That’s what the lowest state bond rating will do.
California is a one party state, at least until 2012.
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