Friday, September 23, 2016

Law and Order: Donald Trump's Trump Card in the Debates and General Election

Donald Trump has a major hurdle in the general election despite recent swings in the polls. We know he has little chance with minorities, especially African Americans and Hispanics, under normal circumstances. The traditional white Protestant core of American values is now down to 47% of the population. The White vote is not going to carry the election for him in the traditional blue states, or even in many of the swing states. His problem is deeper than just ethnic voting. Republicans have been slipping for decades in the affluent suburbs, the core of their vote outside the central cities. Trump’s support has been positively hemorrhaging in the suburbs. The educated, middle class suburban voter, male and female, does not like Donald Trump. Forget the swing states; lose the suburbs and lose the election. His chance is that these voters are not in a lovefest with Hillary Clinton. Suburbanites are as apprehensive as the rest of America about the country’s future. Security, national and domestic, is a major concern. Always remember that security is a major reason for living in the suburbs. Americans are witnessing the international shaming of America. They will remember Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s failed Russian reset. Jewish voters have seen President Obama humiliating Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and imperiling Israel. They see the ineffectual response of the Administration to San Bernardino, Orlando, and New York/New Jersey. They witness the attacks on police, in cities like Philadelphia, Baton Rouge, Detroit, and Dallas. They’re repelled by the riots in Baltimore, Ferguson, Milwaukee, and Charleston. They know the riots can spill over into the suburbs. They see crime rising as the police are neutered. The Democrats are hoping Baltimore, Ferguson, Milwaukee, and now Charleston will gin up the African American vote as Hillary tries to get an unenthusiastic minority base to turn out in Obama numbers. She is thus pandering to the African American vote, adopting the mantra of Black Lives Matter. (Senator Paul Tsongas referred to her husband, Governor Clinton, during the 1992 primaries as a “Pander Bear”). Law and order is not a partisan or racial issue. The African American mothers in Chicago want, and need law and order just as much, if not more so, than the suburban moms. The African American merchants looted in Ferguson want, and need, law and order as much as do the affluent suburban merchants. All the residents of Baltimore need law and order. Donald Trump can tap into that primordial fear. Hillary Clinton can try, but it would be as unbelievable as any of her statements. That is his opportunity in the suburbs. If he can bring the suburbs back into the Republican fold, and reduce the large Democratic vote among African Americans, Hispanics, and Jews, he will win. Donald Trump can do it.

No comments: