Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Can Donald Trump Win the Presidency In Spite of Himself?
Campaigns have highs and lows, peaks and valleys, ebbs and flows. Donald Trump’s campaign is in the dumps right now. The media, which provided him hundreds of millions of free publicity during the primary campaign for the entertainment value, has reverted to its true liberal self. The media led by the New York Times have assumed a Dump Trump posture. Donald Trump had an opportunity to attack Hillary Clinton for a month after clinching the Republican nomination. Instead, he went off on his by now standard harangues, including a personal attack on a judge in a legal dispute. Derogatorily calling Judge Curiel a “Mexican” was just plain stupid. It reeks of racism. Attention was negatively focused on Trump instead of Clinton. It’s called an unforced error in tennis. We would call it a case of the “Galloping Dumbs.” He continues to attack Republican leaders instead of trying to unify the party. It’s “his way all the way’ or a torrent of vituperation. His remarks feed into the Obama focus group vetted talking point that he lacks the temperament to be President, even though she is notorious for her explosive temper. He has depended upon the cult of personality while the Clinton machine is organizing a formidable ground campaign; i.e. getting out the vote. Twitter feeds are no substitute for ads and a disciplined ground game. Governors can use their political organizations to help get the vote out for Presidential campaign. The good news is that the battleground states of Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin have Republican governors, as do Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts The bad news is that these governors are not supporting him. Their organizations are not available to Donald Trump. Governors who have either said they will not support him, or are remaining quiet. They include Kasich of Ohio, Snyder of Michigan, Walker of Wisconsin, Hogan of Wisconsin, Rauner of Illinois, and Scott of Florida. . You can’t viciously attack elected officials, such as Senator McCain or Governor Martinez, and then expect support from them. His list of castigated enemies is large and growing. His campaign has little money in the bank and currently spending zero on advertising, whereas the Clinton Campaign is running ads in the battleground states. 2/3 of the ads feature the softer side of Hillary Clinton. He has minimal support among non-whites. He probably can’t win on white votes alone. He’s giving the otherwise unpopular Hillary Clinton a reason for Americans to vote for her: she’s not Trump. Here’s why Donald Trump still has a chance in spite himself. He’s not Hillary Clinton. She may be less disliked than Donald Trump, but her unfavorables still exceed her favorables. To quote the Bill Clinton campaign: “It’s the economy, stupid.” It’s still a moribund economy under President Obama. Hillary wants to be Obama’s successor. Donald Trump has created jobs. The only jobs Hillary Clinton has created are chauffers. Even with the past weeks of negatives even with the media’s Dump Trump blitz, Hillary Clinton is not blowing Donald Trump out of the race. She cannot put him away early in the general campaign. Donald Trump can run by repeatedly emphasizing a few themes: It’s the economy It’s immigration It’s global trade It’s terrorism. And, for good measure, It’s all about gun control. Leave the personal crap behind. Cut the vicious remarks. Don’t continue to behave as if he must respond, often viciously, to every slight, insult, or criticism. Leave the skin thin behind with Corey Levandowski. Take advantage of bad news, such as poor economic data. There will probably be more terrorist attacks before November. Attack the Obama-Clinton Administration as clueless and incompetent in fighting terrorism. Hammer Radical Islamic Terrorism! Make peace, not war with Republicans. At some point during the long campaign, Hillary Clinton will say something incredibly stupid, especially when she gets off her focus group programmed talking points. Even the media won’t be able to ignore. Hammer it home. Remind Americans why they don’t like Hillary Clinton. Why Donald Trump can still win? The American people are looking for a leader. Hillary Clinton is not a leader.