Monday, November 3, 2014

Fearless Prognostications for Tuesday

Ignore the polls! Republicans thought they would win two years ago. Democrats knew they would win. Commentators and pols are predicting Republicans will capture the senate, pick up House seats, do well with governorships, and gain state legislative seats. Last minute polls cannot account for early voting. If these voters change their minds, it’s too late to change their votes. Second, the polls cannot take into account voting fraud. Electronic voting machines in Cook County and Maryland have registered Republican votes as Democratic votes. Chicago is still Chicago. Colorado is suspicious with its new voting system. Philadelphia still has walking around money. The Democratic get out the vote efforts can produce scores of fraudulent votes by multiple voting, non-voters, and non-citizens. The only polls that count are at the ballot box, which can still be stuffed. Forget the polls; look to the early results from the East Coast as the polls close. Look to the Senate races in New Hampshire and North Carolina and the Governorships in Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Maryland. Maine’s incumbent governor is a weak Republican candidate, but he may win reelection by a plurality. Connecticut and Massachusetts are strong blue states, but large tax increases in these states and Maryland, coupled with weak Democratic Candidates could result in Republican wins. If Scott Brown defeats incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire and Thom Tillis prevails in North Carolina over Senator Kay Hagan, then it will be a long night for Democrats, solaced only by regaining the Pennsylvania governorship. Both Senators Shaheen (by $7 million) and Hagan (by $20 million) have grossly outspent their challengers, proving that money and negative campaigns can still win. Kansas and Colorado will later tell the rest of the story. Senator Pat Roberts, who should not have sought reelection, will probably pull it out. Kansas is Kansas. Colorado is the true test. If Democratic Senator Mark Udall and Governor John Hickenlooper are defeated, then Republicans will probably also win control of the state senate. The seemingly blue state will be purple. However, demographics are against Republicans in the long run in Colorado. Here’s the predictions: Republicans gain the Senate seats in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and hold onto Georgia, Kansas, and Kentucky. My endless optimism is that they will also gain at least one Senate seat in New Hampshire or North Carolina. A true wave will also bring in New Mexico, ending the Udall reign in the Senate. The Republicans also pick up 8-14 House seats, including 2-3 in California, 1-2 in New Hampshire, and one each in New York and West Virginia. New York Republican Congressman Michael Grimm will inexplicably gain another two years in Congress. Governor Scott Walker wins reelection in Wisconsin, as will his colleagues Rick Scott in Florida, Sam Brownback in Kansas, and Rick Snyder in Michigan, but Republicans will gain or lose a net of 1-2 governorships. Democrats Pat Quinn In Illinois and Dam Malloy in Connecticut were lucky to win four years ago, but may not repeat. They shouldn’t. President Barack Obama will remain President for two more years. Never underestimate the powers of a petulant President or his presence on golf courses.

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