Thursday, June 28, 2012

Further Reflections on Today's Supreme Court ObamaCare Decision

Further Reflections on Today’s Supreme Court ObamaCare Decision

President Obama won big today. The basis of the Court’s decision is irrelevant for political purposes. The President won.

President Obama admired President Reagan as a transformative President. He too wants to be a transformative president. He succeeded today, placing 1/6 of the nation’s economy under the government’s thumb, scrapping federalism, enlarging the powers of the federal government with states and the people being the big losers, and growing the culture of dependency on the federal government. The almost 4 centuries of American personal freedom are now subordinated to the government.

Having become a transformative president, President Obama should now step aside. If he wins reelection, the next four years will be hell for the President. The 21 tax increases in ObamaCare accompanied by the end of the Bush tax cuts will result in tax increases so high as to possibly send this fragile economy into a depression. Inflation is another risk as the Fed losses the ability to keep interest rates at 0. The market will respond.

If he wins reelection, and the Republicans control both houses of Congress, then he might as well be spending 365 days a year on the golf course.

It is a big loss for the American people and personal freedom.

It is also a major loss for Chief Justice Roberts and the Supreme Court. The majority of five not only rewrote the statute, but more significantly the Constitution. The Chief Justice may have been too clever by half. His opinion limited the reach of the Commerce Clause, the Necessary and Proper Clause and the Spending Clause. Such holdings will not hold up if a reelected President Obama replaces 4-5 Justices over the next 4 years.

The health insurers and Pharma believe they won today because of the deals cut. They’re wrong. In the long run, perhaps 5 years, the costs will be so great Congress will have no financial choice but to stick it to the insurers and Pharma because that is where the money is.

The "Affordable Health Care Act" is an oxymoron.

Do you know who the largest employer is in England?

It’s the National Health Service with 1.7 million employees in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. It’s the fifth largest employer in the world, trailing only the Pentagon, the Chinese military, WalMart and McDonald’s. By way of comparison, WalMart employs 2.1 million worldwide, including 200,000 in England.

That is the future.

What about the present?

The Republicans and Governor Romney promise to repeal ObamaCare. Perhaps, if they hold the House, win the Presidency, and reap 60 seats in the Senate to survive a filibuster. The first two are possible, but the election of 13 additional Republican senators would require a landslide of historic proportions.

However, Chief Justice Roberts’ opinion lays out a roadmap. The Mandate cannot stand independently, and is not supported by the Commerce or Necessary and Proper Clauses. It only exists as an alternative to the tax.

If the mandated taxes on individuals and employers are repealed, then the Mandate falls. A Republican Congress can manipulate the votes on taxes, so as to require only a simple majority in the Senate. Thus, the heart of ObamaCare can be carved out.

However, that would not repeal many of the other provisions, including most of the 21 tax increases, mandated coverage, etc.

America lost today, but remember “It’s still the economy, stupid.”

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