Saturday, November 10, 2012

California Is Now a One Party State

California is a one-party state after Tuesday's election.

California has 18 million registered voters. Less than 29.4% are registered Republicans as the GOP becomes increasingly marginalized.

If Tuesday’s state legislative races end up as they look, then California will officially become a one-party state. Democrats currently hold all 8 statewide constitutional offices, and will hold at least 28 of the 40 state Senate seats and at least 55 of the 80 Assembly seats. One assembly seat has not been decided, but the Democrats are leading in it.

If they win this Assembly seat, then they will have a super-majority in the state legislature and proceed to ignore the Republican representatives.

The Republicans also lost several Congressional seats, and may be down to just 15 out of the 53 seat delegation. Two races remain undecided, but the vote count favors the Democratic candidates.

A voter approved referendum requires all tax increases to receive a 2/3 vote of each house for approval. A 2/3 vote will also override a Governor’s veto. The new supermajority will reduce a Governor’s leverage in threatening to veto bills.

The effect until the new legislative seats in January was that the Democrats either had to negotiate with the Republicans or peel a few off with any sort of promises.

Not any more, or at least until the 2014 mid-term elections.

The Democratic majority will ignore both the Republicans and the voters and directly enact tax increases to plug their ever-enlarging budget chasm, which is currently estimated at $18 billion.

They will have to impose ever increasing taxes because the public employee unions will not let them cut expenditures where it will make a difference: salaries, benefits, and pension plans.

The Democrats and the unions believe the answer to the budgetary problems is tax increases. They and President Obama believe tax increases are the key to prosperity.

They do not understand that you can tax more and more from less and less until there is nothing left to tax.

The one-party government in California is not the Democratic Party, but the public employee unions who control the Democratic Party.

The Legislature cannot raise taxes fast enough, especially since each round of increases will drive more businesses out of the state, reducing the overall business activity. Governor Davis raised taxes, and was eventually recalled from office. Governor Schwarzenegger initially cut the despised car tax, and then raised taxes. He sullied the Republican image. Governor Brown is now raising taxes.

None of these sometimes massive tax increases solved the budget problem.

It’s a spending problem – not a revenue problem.

The GOP didn’t realize it at the time, but its decline began in 1990 when the Cold War ended. The state was hit with about 200,000 layoffs in the aerospace industry and a major recession. About 1 million Californians left the state, a large number of whom were Republicans.

The exodus has continued with an estimated net migration of 225,000 leaving the state on average in every year over the past decade. The majority of these are Republicans.

California Dreaming is no longer a reality.

Democratic registration prior to the 1996 election was 47.2% compared to 36.4% for the Republicans. The Democratic registration has dropped 3.5% since then to a current 43.7%, but the Republicans lost 7% from 36.4%.

The Republican political advantage has been steadily slipping. even prior to the 2010 reapportionment. The 2010 midterm elections witnessed a landslide nationally for Republicans, but not in California. The Republicans did not gain a seat in Congress or the state legislature in 2010.

2012 after reapportionment promised to be a Republican debacle. It was.

The decline continues, as does the exodus from the once Golden State.

The pension time bomb is ticking.

Cities are going bankrupt.

Authorized bonds cannot be issued because the interest is too high. That’s what the lowest state bond rating will do.

California is a one party state, at least until 2012.

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