Sunday, January 31, 2016

The Iowa Caucus is Tomorrow: IS Donald Trump Campaigning to Lose

Iowa Votes Tomorrow: Does Donald Trump Really Want to Win? Finally, the pre-season is over. 1%, probably more, will turn out to vote in 6 hour Iowa caucuses. They are die-hard politicos. Donald Trump is running for President. We all know that. Yet, his recent behavior is quixotic. First he said he “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters.” That’s not the right way to shake the “New York Values” tag. He followed that by saying on MSNBC, the networked abhorred by conservatives: “Well, I think that I will be able to get along with Pelosi. I think I’m going to be able to. I’ve always had a good relationship with Nancy Pelosi. I’ve never had a problem.” He had similar good things to say about Senators Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer. The Congressional Republicans are the recipients of much of the anger of the Republican base. They believe that the Republican Congress lacks leadership and the will to fight for the principles it campaigned on. They don’t want more negotiations with the Democrats. Donald trump has been a leading critic of the deals reached with the Democrats and the failure to fight many issues. Yet, he broadcast that he could negotiate with them. The Republican base would lambaste any other Republican candidate who expressed a similar statement. Indeed, Governor Bush was eviscerated when he said it earlier with plunging results. The Donald seems to be skating unscathed. Or is he? Iowans take their caucus seriously. Many wait until the caucus to decide because they want to be right. They know their caucus is integral to choosing the next President of the United States. They have the farmbelt ability to separate the wheat from the chaff. Thus, the polls are often notoriously inaccurate. Then Donald trump ignored the final debate, which as in Iowa. Maybe he is right that it doesn’t matter with his backers. Yet, it could backfire. He cancelled because of a self-created feud with Fox News, ostensibly because Fox’s popular Megan Kelly was unfair to him in the first debate. He intimated she was suffering from her menstrual cycle in the first debate. Megan Kelly had asked him about his pattern of nasty comments about women. He demanded Roger Ailes remove her from the Iowa debate panel, a request he had to know Roger Ailes would never agree to. He followed up by calling Megan Kelly a bimbo. Way to go with women voters! He has deliberately taken on the one major network, which is conservative and fair and balanced to conservatives. What is he thinking? He’s trashed the “dumb people” on TV who work for the Wall Street Journal. He’s has to realize the influential conservative, editorial page of the Journal will dump on him. Let us assume that Donald Trump is an egotistical narcissist. Let us also assume he’s the poster boy for “arrested development.” But don’t be fooled. He’ a very smart, successful businessman. He can read a balance sheet. He understands cash flow. He does risk-benefit analysis. He has to know that it is almost impossible for him to win the general election. He has to know that he cannot win the election on mostly white male votes. He has offended women, Hispanics, and Muslims with his histrionics. That’s a winning coalition for a Democrat in November. He flirted with entering the primaries in previous election, but pulled back. This time, 2016), he is “all-in. He announced his candidacy, and attacked all the “losers” out there with bombastic insults for everyone else. Dr. Ben Carson, Senator McCain, Glenn Beck, Mitt Romney, Karl Rove, Brett Bozell, Erick Erickson, Hugh Hewitt, Charles Krauthammer, George Will, Bill Kristol, Rich Lowry, John Sununu, Nicole Wallace, Mort Zuckerman, and a host of others. Many today collect friends on Facebook. The Donald is accumulating enemies. The consummate New Yorker knows he won’t even carry New York. Be nice to those you pass on the way up for you will see them again on the way down! His campaign caught fire. He caught lightning in a bottle. Suddenly, he’s winning the polls. Polls aren’t votes. He knows it’s time to fish or cut bait. He’s got to put real money in his campaign if he continues. Odds are that he is asset rich, but cash poor. He’s a real estate developer. It’s been fun, and he’ll love to be President, but the risk analysis is unfavorable. Why not cut his losses in Iowa? Let the unrepresentative caucuses vote for Senator Cruz, who has discovered his evangelical roots, but may drown in ethanol. Maybe Senator Rubio or Senator Paul or Governor Christy or Governor Kasich or Governor Bush will pull a surprise. Maybe Governor Huckabee or Senator Santorum will reclaim the Evangelical vote. Maybe the caucus voters will be so upset with the bombastic candidates that they will vote for Dr. Carson. And maybe the Donald will survive to New Hampshire.

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