Predicting the Michigan Wolverines in 2024

I stopped making predictions before Covid, having been consistently wrong. I would not have predicted 15-0 last year, defeating Alabama, and winning the National Title, not after they lost to TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. Michigan was consistently ranked in the top four last preseason. Expectation are not as high this year. Many prognosticators rank them #8-10 preseason, and many predict the Wolverines won’t make the playoffs. I think 8-4 to 10-2 is a good choice. The team had 13 players drafted by the NFL. The entire offensive line has to be replaced. They lost their star quarterback, running back, and wide receiver, two defensive linemen, and All-American defensive back. The early games last season were cupcakes. Not in 2024. The second game of the season is Texas, which will set the tone for the season. They also have USC and Oregon at home and Ohio State in Columbus. 2-2 in those four games would be great. Ohio State is ranked #2 pre-season with the best team money can buy, $20 million in NIL money. The Ohio State family can’t believe they lost three straight to The Team Up North. They had more talent than Michigan, out recruited Michigan every year, and were loaded with 5 star recruits. Michigan mostly had three and four stars. The Buckeyes remain in an extended stage of denial. Some believe Michigan cheated through sign stealing. Two stats matter. The first is the won-loss records. 3-0 in the past three years. The second is the number of players drafted in the NFL Draft. Michigan had 13 players drafted in the 2024 draft. The Team Down South, only 4. Michigan had 9 in 2023 versus 6 for the Buckeyes. Ohio State had 6 in 2022 compared to 5 for Michigan. The three-year record is 27 for Michigan and 16 for Ohio state. Which team had the best players? Michigan has two advantages over Ohio State. First, it may have taken longer than expected for Harbaugh to mold Michigan into a physical, old time smash mouth football with the offensive and defensive lines wearing down the opposing lines. Tight ends and fullbacks play a major role. Run first, then pass. The second factor is Michigan developed its players, especially the Linemen. The lines were mostly fourth and fifth year seniors. They bulked up, got quicker, and learnt their positions. Ohio state’s high recruits often turned pro within two years. The Michigan linemen were frequently substituted because the backups, starters this year, were equally good. However, Michigan State remains the sleeper in the picture. Michigan beat MSU 49-0. Last year, their coach was fired, players left, and they have a new coach. History tells us every Michigan first year coach since 1959, whether great, good, or mediocre, has lost to Michigan State: 1959 Bump Elliott 8-34 1969 Bo Schembechler 12-23 1990 Gary Moeller 27-28 1995 Lloyd Carr 25-28 2008 Rich Rodriquez 21-35 2011 Brady Hoke 14-28 2015 Jim Harbaugh 23-27 Only two Big Ten teams won a national title, Ohio State in 2002 and 2014 and Michigan. The Big (Ten) conference teams usually lose to SEC teams. Michigan’s offensive line won the Joe Moore Award for best offensive line in 2021 and 2022. They were runners up to Washington last year. The Huskies line was obliterated by Michigan’s defensive line in the title game, showing the Huskies were overrated. Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia won multiple titles with incredible teams. I place Michigan’s 2023 National Championship with LSU’s 2019, season long dominance with outstanding players at each position. Texas, USC, Oregon, Ohio State and Michigan State. Let’s see how Michigan runs the gauntlet.