Saturday, May 7, 2016
Thoughts on the 2016 General Election
We have a 67 year old white woman running against a 69 year old white male in the age of the diverse Millennials. Go Figure We have a New York billionaire running against an Illinois/Arkansas/D.C./New York multi-millionaire at a time when the Democratic Party is harping on inequality. Go figure The two parties will nominate the two least popular contestants in their parties and in America. Go figure If these were normal times Secretary Clinton would trounce Donald Trump in November. But it’s not. If these were normal times, Donald trump would not be the Republican nominee for President. But he is. If these were normal times, the candidate with the largest campaign chest would have won, but Governor Jeb Bush lost. If these were normal times, Republicans would have voted for a true, dyed in the wool conservative. But they didn’t. These are not normal times. The pundits have been uniformly wrong so far. So have I. Donald Trump, probably given the least chance a year ago of winning the nomination, defeated 14 experienced politicians and two eminent outsiders. It wasn’t close. He’s currently trailing Secretary Clinton by 14% in recent polls. The media has him splitting apart the Republican Party, costing them control of the House, Senate, and the Supreme Court. Democrats are salivating at defeating the bombastic, reality TV star, apprentice politician. Both Governor Pat Brown and President Jimmy Carter salivated at running against Ronald Reagan, an actor. Democrats are already running ads featuring Trump’s sexist, racist, anti-Mexican, anti-Muslim, misogynist rants. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is publicly trashing him. It looks ominous for Trump and the Republicans. Looks can be deceiving. Whatever else you can say about Donald Trump, he’s genuine. You know where he is coming from. Secretary Clinton is an inveterate liar, who, when she gets off her scripted focus group talking points, says incredibly stupid and arrogant statements. She will try to stay on focus with her vetted talking points, such as “loose cannon” and “too big a risk.” Whatever else you can say about Donald Trump, he has created jobs, which you cannot say about the Clintons. Senator Cruz said Donald Trump was a serial philanderer. So is President Clinton, aka “Slick Willie”, whose wife, Hillary, enabled him by mounting a crusade against “Bimbo Eruptions.” This campaign promises to be exceedingly negative. The negatives are so high on both sides that this campaign will set a record for negativity. The onslaught of negative ads did not stop Trump in the primaries, but they will be effective in the general election rallying the non-Republican groups Trump insulted. The Hispanic vote, at least the non-Cuban Hispanic vote, is expected to be overwhelmingly against Donald Trump. And yet, maybe not, the Hispanics who have been here for decades are not necessarily allied with the recent immigrants who have illegally crossed the border and are costing the American Hispanics jobs. 28% of the Hispanic Americans voted 22 years ago ago in favor of California’s anti-immigrant Prop 187. Secretary Clinton has another advantage. She has built a large political machine for this election campaign, including $5 million on data mining, the successful technique used by President Obama in his reelection campaign four years ago. Donald Trump ran his primary campaign on the cuff, out-organized and out-spent by his primary opponents That won’t win it in the November election.. Governor Clinton won both Presidential elections by a plurality – not a majority due to the third party campaign by Ross Perot, who hated President Bush President George H. W. Bush did not campaign until the traditional Labor Day. In the meantime Governor Clinton painted him as an out-of-touch elitist. President Bush then ran an ineffectual campaign. His biggest problem was breaching his "No New Taxes" pledge to the American people. President George H. W. Bush apparently ran out of a spirit of noblesse oblige. Governor Clinton ran out of raw ambition. Bush 41's son, President George W. Bush also let Democrats paint him as ineffectual. First, accusing him of incompetence in response to Katrina. He stayed silent eventhough Louisiana’s Governor Blanco and New Orleans’ Mayor Ray Nagin, both Democrats, were at fault in not evacuating the City prior to the Hurricane. He did not response when they accused his Administration, maybe Vice President Dick Chaney, of leaking Valerie Plame’s clandestine identity as a CIA agent. He was accused of lying to start the war in Iraq for Iraq’s oil. Again, President Bush stayed quiet. Then the economy collapsed. Senator McCain was ineffectual against Senator Obama in 2008. Senator Obama won in a landslide. Governor Romney let the Obama campaign paint him as a callous plutocrat four years ago. He had no response. Donald trump will not stay silent as the Democrats attempt to paint him. He has already attacked Senator warren for her false claims to be ab American Indian to take advantage of affirmative action at the University of Pennsylvania Law School and Harvard Law School. She's also been caught plagiarizing. He will give better than he receives. The media boosted Donald Trump during the primary season because of the excitement and entertainment value. The media will quickly turn on him. They want Secretary Clinton to be President. The anti-Trump demonstrations, which sometimes become confrontational may create a backlash for the candidate. One final twist in the election is Hillary’s emails. Have no fear, she will not be indicted. President Obama has already stated she lacked intent. The statute doesn’t require intent. General Petraeus lacked intent, but he had to plead guilty. Attorney General Lynch will not arrest or indict Hillary Clinton or her aides. Democrats figure the electoral map will give Secretary Clinton the election. The Washington Post on May 2 posted a map which showed from 1992 to 2012, twenty years of six Presidential elections, 18 states and the District of Columbia voted for the Democratic candidate every time for a total of 242 electoral votes. Add Florida’s 29 electoral votes and the Democratic candidate will have the winning 271 votes. The 18 states are California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin. Only 13 states with 102 electoral votes consistently voted Republican. Donald Trump either has to sweep all the other states or wield a few of the Rust Belt states, such as Wisconsin, away from the Democrats. Thus the overall picture looks bad for the Donald. The two parties will nominate the two least popular candidates in their parties and the nation as their candidate. Go figure. Figure the election to get down and dirty. We will probably see these romp organizations during the campaign: Democrats for Trump and Republicans for Hillary. A subtle factor is that Donald Trump is a fresh breeze while Hillary Clinton is a political retread. Donald Trump’s prospects do not appear good at this point in the election cycle. That means he has the Democrats right where he wants them.