Wednesday, March 2, 2016
Clinton v. Trump (?)
Clinton v. Trump (?) The consummate insider v. the Outsider Super Tuesday, the SEC Primary, has spoken. Clinton and Trump are the big winners. Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, absent an indictment. Trump will be the Republican nominee unless Cruz or Rubio quickly drop out. Clinton v. Sanders is a one-on-one competition. She won 8 (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia), and Sanders 4. All 12 states were by majority vote. The Black vote in Southern states was decisive in her victories The Republican race was different. Trump won 7 (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia Massachusetts, Tennessee, and Vermont), Cruz 4 (Alaska, Oklahoma, and Texas), and Rubio 1 (Minnesota), but all victories were by pluralities. Not one victor reached 50% in a state. As long as Senators Cruz and Rubio split the anti-trump vote, Trump will win most of the remaining contests by pluralities. That’s all you need in winner take all primaries. Senator Cruz won Alaska, Texas, and Oklahoma. He won enough to stay in the race. Senator Rubio won the caucus state of Minnesota and came close in Virginia. The new favorite of the Republican “establishment” salvaged a reprieve in his sinking campaign. His remaining strategy is simple: win his home state of Florida, keep Donald Trump from winning a majority of the delegates before the GOP Convention, and then depend on a brokered convention to seal the deal. It’s not going to happen. A stolen nomination will result in a Trump third party campaign. Clinton would win by a plurality as did her husband in 1992 and 1996. The Republican establishment can’t take that risk this year. It’s Clinton v. Trump. Fashion your seat belt. It will be the dirtiest, most exciting campaign since LBJ’s resounding defeat of Senator Barry Goldwater in 1964. The Clintons are proven liars and will say and do anything to win. She can’t run on her record. The Clintons are salivating at the chance to run against Trump. They believe they have Trump’s own words and personal history to defeat him. California Governor Pat Brown and President Jimmy Carter also figured they would defeat a B actor, Ronald Reagan. The Clinton strategy is to gin up the Obama Coalition: African Americans, Hispanics, young women, students, and unions. She will add Muslims to the coalition. She has been assiduously been courting the Black vote, echoing Black Lives matter, and the “excessive” mass incarceration rate of African Americans. Her ads will play Trump’s racist rants against Hispanics and Muslims. The bombastic Trump will respond in kind. The mainstream media will pile on, aiding the Democratic cause. Trump’s supporters do not read the New York Times or Washington Post. She will wrap herself around President Obama, whose Administration will not indict her. She will run as the first female nominee. She will run on experience with no actual successes to show. Benghazi was her 3:00am phone call. Her message will include the standard Republican War on Women. Trump will respond with her husband’s personal war on women. Bill’s sex scandals will resurface and reverberate. She will also be unable to keep him muzzled through November. Her campaign fight against economic inequality will be met by cattle futures. Her focus group driven words will be betrayed by an incredibly stupid, inane statement at some point during the campaign. She will tout the success of ObamaCare, but face the millions who lost their existing coverage under ObamaCare. California will once again be irrelevant during the election except as a fundraising piggybank. The Republican establishment will hold its nose, swallow its pride, and vote for Trump. They have no choice. Primary turnout is not always predictive of November turnout. However, the Republican vote is up substantially this cycle while Democratic votes are down. The Reagan blue-collar Democrats are voting for Trump this primary season. They will be the difference if Trump wins in November.