Friday, February 8, 2008

Lessons From california

Immigration is not a defining issue for Republicans – not in California, not in Arizona.

White males may now vote for a person of color.

The public believes in term limits for legislators.

Political endorsements work to a point, but the Kennedys could not deliver either
California or Massachusetts to Obama, but they may have cut the margin of victory.

The “non-conservative” conservative, John McCain, won the conservative vote in California. He carried all but two Congressional districts, and all 6 of the Orange County Congressional Districts. Orange County is the bedrock of Republican conservatism. Senator Barry Goldwater’s 1964 Presidential campaign got its genesis in Orange County, which then became the political base for Ronald Reagan. The County was also the birthplace of Richard Nixon.

The polls continue to be bumpkus this year. The only polls that matter are the votes of the voters in the voting booth. Even exit polls, especially early exit polls, can be erroneous.

The closing polls which showed Obama in the lead and Romney overtaking McCain were wrong.

Polls showing such a last minute surge in popularity cannot overcome the inertia of 2 million previously cast absentee ballots, which locked themselves in too early in a volatile election.

Talk show hosts and blogs play a significant role in determining the political future, but may not be decisive (See McCain).

As usual, the youth vote was Democratic.

Asian Americans and Latinos are increasingly registered and voting.

Voters support increased state revenues from Indian casinos.

Voters will approve tax increases, especially when presented in a disingenuous manner. Courts had struck down a 10% Los Angeles phone tax, meaning it should be 0. The City repackaged it as a tax cut from 10% to 9% that would support police and fire. It was also advertised as a way to cut corporate tax loopholes. In fact, the tax was extended to apply to cell phone calls as well as land lines. It helps that no organized opposition existed to the tax increase.

Even peace loving San Franciscans can draw a line. They rejected a proposal to turn Alcatraz into a Peace Center

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