The Anomaly of the Surprising September Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate has dropped two months in a row. The Department of Labor announced Friday that it declined to 7.8% from 8.1%, the first time it dipped below 8% in the 43 months of the Obama Administration. The unemployment rate was 8.3% in July.

The economy must be improving. President Obama clearly let out a sigh of relief.

Conversely, Jack Welch, the retired Chair of General Electric, claimed the Administration had engaged in a conspiracy to fix the rate.

If it doesn’t make sense, then it’s probably wrong. If the numbers don’t add up, something’s wrong. If it doesn’t look right, then it’s probably wrong.

However, it’s not a conspiracy, but an anomaly due to small samples.

Let's look at the underlying statistics and methodology to understand the anomaly.

The reports on new filings for unemployment compensation are based on actual state reports.

However, the monthly unemployment rate is based on surveys, and thus has to be revised as more information comes in. For example, the initial August report of 96,000 new jobs was increased to 142,000 and July was revised upwards to 181,000 from 141,000.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys 141,000 of the 6 million private employers and 345,000 federal, state and local government agencies in the United States to estimate the unemployment rate. This survey estimated 114,000 new jobs were created with 104,000 in the private sector and 10,000 in the public sector. (How can we be adding jobs in the public sector in this economy?)

However, a different survey of 60,000 households out of 117 million American households reported 873,000 new jobs.

Whether you use a calculator, adding machine, slide rule, abacus, math tables or your fingers, these numbers don’t add up.

They also tell an incomplete tale. 12.1 million Americans are counted as unemployed. The number though of Americans who are unemployed, underemployed, or no longer looking for work remained constant at 23 million. 8.6 million Americans of the 23 million were working at part time jobs in September, up from 7.7 million in March.

The number of Americans unemployed or working at part time jobs remained constant at 14.7%.

A study from the National Employment Law Project reported in late August that most of the jobs added in the recovery were low paying jobs; lower wage occupations with median wages of $7.69 to $13.83, accounted for 21% of the job losses during the economic retrenchment, but 58% of the job gains in the recovery.

We also know that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced on September 13 that the economy remained weak. He said the “weak job market should concern every American.” He announced a third round of “quantitative easing” with the Fed buying $40 billion of mortgage backed securities in the open market. Thus, the Fed is continually to pump money into the economy.

We also know that the economy grew only 1.7% in the second quarter, down from 4.1% in the last quarter of 2011.

Employment is not going to rise substantially as the economy is slipping in an already weak recovery. The problem lies with the methodology by which the BLS computes the numbers.

If the October report is an anomaly, then the November numbers, released 5 days before the election, may show a spike upwards. That will not be good news for the President.

To Whom or What Can We Compare President Obama to?

Nero fiddled while Rome burned. Obama campaigned while Benghazi burned.

Carter kicked the Shah out of Iran, to be followed by the Ayatollahs.

Obama kicked Mubarak out of power in Egypt to be followed by the Muslim Brotherhood.

“Hope and Change” campaign motto of Senator Barack Obama in 2008.

“Most important is you can’t change Washington from inside, only from the outside.” President Barack Obama, September 20, 2012

"Let them eat cake"
     
        Marie Antoinette

"You didn't male it"

        President Obama

Secretary of the Interior Albert Fall in 1922 during the Harding Administration granted sweetheart leases to naval petroleum reserves in Wyoming and California (Teapot Dome) to oil barons Henry Sinclair and Edward Doheny.

Secretary of Energy Steven Chu in the Obama Administration approved sweetheart loan guarantees to Solyndra, waiving the federal government’s priority, and several other solar, wind, and battery companies, the proponents of which have been major backers of the Obama campaign in an exercise of crony capitalism.

“In your heart you know he’s nuts” claimed President Lyndon Johnson’s campaign against Senator Barry Goldwater in 1964 as they ran the Daisy Ad and claimed the Senator would war monger in Vietnam; LBJ was secretly planning to increase the war after reelection.

Both President Obama and his campaign are claiming Governor Romney will raise taxes on the middle class by $2,000 per family as the President is salivating over raising taxes out of “fairness.”

“There is no there, there”

     Gertrude Stein

There is no there, there

     

    My view on President Obama without a teleprompter

“I am not a crook”

     Richard Nixon

“I did not have sexual relations with that woman.”

      President Clinton, January 26, 1998

“The notion that my White House would purposely release classified national security information is offensive.”

      President Obama, June 8, 2012

 

“Obama’s dead, and GM’s alive”

          Democratic National Convention

“We do not spike the football?

       President Obama

Muslims erupt with Osama as the martyr

Should Bill Maher Ask for His Million Dollars back: Questions and Reflections on the Debate

Should Bill Maher Ask For His $1 million back? Questions and perceptions on last night’s Debate

The acerbic comedian Bill Maher contributed $1 million to the Obama Campaign. I have no problem with that any more than with George Soros contributing millions to the Democrats and the Koch brothers millions to Republican campaigns. That’s free speech in action.

If HBO wants to put him on a little watched hour show, that’s HBO’s call. As potential viewers, we can watch or not.

Questions about the debate:

How could Clint Eastwood be so prescient at the GOP Convention? He knew something with the empty chair representing President Obama, who was attempting to phone in the debate.

Can we rescind Vice President Al Gore’s Nobel and Oscar for gross stupidity? He theorized the President’s poor performance was because the President had not adjusted to the elevation in Denver.

Does Chris Matthews still get that tingle down his leg?

Is there a golf course at the Westin Lake Last Vegas where President Obama prepped for the debate?

     Yes; the resort has a private golf course.

Did the President golf during prepping?

     Your guess is as good as mine.

Does the President really believe his talking points?

Which of the two debaters wore the larger American Flag pin?

    Not the candidate who did not want to wear an American Flag pin four years ago.

We know President Obama did not read many of the Daily Briefing Reports on national security.  Is he just as lax with domestic reports?

      The President practiced for the Denver debate in Las Vegas. He arrived Sunday night and attended a campaign rally at a high school.

     He visited a campaign office on Monday and then on Tuesday toured Hoover Dam. He quipped “basically they’re keeping me indoors all the time.” He added “It’s a drag. They’re making me do my homework.”

     Sounds like he was a truant.

Why did President Obama single out Donald Trump?

     Donald Trump has gotten under the petulant skin of President Obama through constant criticism. The President, with a reputation for arrogance and a thin skin, just could not let it pass. The President diminished the Presidency.

Which network had the largest viewership during the conventions and yesterday’s debate?

      Fox News by a landslide.

Which organization, a vigorous booster of ObamaCare, objected to the President using their name in the debate?

      The AARP

How do you explain the New York Times?

     It was clear to all media observers, and even Obama campaign staffers, that Governor Romney decisively won the debate.

    Chuck Todd and Dave Gregory of NBC immediately called Romney the winner. Chris Matthews and Ed Cafferty of CNN were chagrined at the President’s poor performance. Matthews offered a real debate on CNN. Ed Schultz of MSNBC proclaimed Romney the winner. The Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, almost every major newspaper, except the New York Times, recognized Governor Romney as the winner.

    Media supporters of the President used words, such as flat, nervous, tentative, tired, bored, smirk, poor body language, uninspired, and unprepared to describe the President’s performance. others called the President lazy and arrogant.

     Bill Maher of the million dollar contribution tweeted a number of comments on the President’s performance. He wrote “I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Obama looks like he DOES need a teleprompter.”

     The comedian clearly did not get his moneys worth out of the President’s performance.

     The lead editorial of the New York Times used such words as “misrepresented,” “false claims,” “falsehoods” and “turnabouts” to describe the Governor’s performance. The editorial reads like talking points from the DNC and not a reasoned editorial by a board of esteemed editors.

Are many of the Obama supporters, including in the media, beginning to recognize the President is an empty suit?

     Don' clear the space at Mount Rushmore yet. Don't rank the President as smarter than Thomas Jefferson. Go back and watch the videos of his press conferences when off the teleprompter.

Does the debate mean that the hundreds of millions of dollars spent by the Obama Campaign on negative ads against the Governor gone down the drain?

What is the response of the Obamanites to the debate results?

     They became sore losers, with even the President today calling Governor Romney  “dishonest.” Sour grapes are not a winning strategy.

Will the President be better prepared for the next debate?

     Yes, but next week Vice President Biden debates Congressman Ryan. If Governor Sarah Palin crushed the Vice President four years ago, what will Congressman Ryan do to the Veep?

     The joke is on Bill Maher.

What is Governor Romney's Debate Strategy for Tonight?

What is the Governor's Romney’s Debate Strategy for Tonight?


We all want to know what the Governor Romney’s strategy is for tonight’s first of three debates.

That’s not the critical question though. The real issue is “What is the Governor’s strategy for winning in November?”

Do you know? Can you figure it out?

I can’t.

Governor Romney has a law degree from Harvard. He also has a MBA from Harvard and spent most of his career in business. He’s disciplined, so one presumes he has mapped out a plan, the political equivalent of a business plan, to get elected president, and is adhering to it.

What is it?

Is it “I’m not President Obama so vote for me.” A large segment of the population has soured on the President and will vote for Governor Romney no matter what, even during a hurricane in the South or a blizzard in the Frost Belt. They may not add up to a majority.

Is it “It’s the economy, stupid?” He seems to be losing that argument eventhough the economy is in the tank and headed over the cliff.

Is it “I’m a great businessman and manager?” Wall Street is in the crosshairs this year. He’s emerging as the second coming of Governor Michael Dukakis.

Is it "Quiet Competence?" Too quiet.

Is it “Steady as it goes?” It’s not so steady now. Plans need flexibility.

Is it "I'm a nice guy?" The Governor by dint of personality cannot out nice the President.

Is it “I will absorb the early blows and then come out blazing?”

Is he therefore adopting the General George Thomas approach or that of President George W. Bush?

General Thomas, the “Rock of Chickamauga,” was slow to fight, but when he did he overwhelmingly destroyed the army of General Hood at the Battle of Nashville. He is now regarded as one of the greatest Union generals of the Civil War.

President Bush ignored all the criticism after the Tragedy of Katrina, thereby becoming regarded as a failed President eventhough the onus should have fallen on Mayor Ray Nagin of New Orleans and Governor Kathleen Blanco of Louisiana, whose failures to act were culpable. Mayor Nagin failed to use the subsequently flooded school buses to evacuate the citizens of New Orleans, as called for the city’s emergency action plan. Governor Blanco refused to declare a state of emergency and start evacuation before Katrina struck.

Admittedly, I am in California, and hence do not experience the full flavor of the campaign. However, the Obama forces have been castigating, demagoguing, slandering, maligning, and lying about the Governor for six months. He has done nothing, said nothing in response. No wonder he is viewed as an out of touch, diffident plutocrat.

His response to the constant 47% charge – non-existent. The big lies about his $2,000 tax increase on the middle class – the sounds of silence. Outsourcing? - as unprepared as he was when Senator Kennedy used it against him in 1994. His being a bully or conversely a wimp – just suck it up. He’s possibly a felon or not representative of the Mormon religion – quiesence. The list goes on.

Americans want leadership in their President. They are not getting it from President Obama, who has been AWOL from governing for the past year. The voters seek it from the Governor has not projected leadership.

He has not offered the American voter a reason to vote for him. To the contrary, President Obama has successfully projected many of his flaws and plans onto the Governor.

What is Governor Romney's vision for America? It should have emerged in the Convention.

President Obama is succeeding in his plan to fundamentally transform America. You ain’t seen nothing yet if he’s reelected.

Of course, President Obama has been pandering to select voting groups: African Americans, Hispanics, women, and students. What has the Governor done to narrow the margins? For Hispanics, it’s “Me too” on the Presidential Dream Act. The Governor has been marketing reproductive rights and women’s health issues to women? The Governor’s response???????

Maybe he’ll deliver the right quip tonight. Maybe he will outshine the President who has trouble off teleprompter. Maybe the Governor will deliver a resonating vision of America tonight.

Maybe, but is it according to plan?

Watch Dr. Phil Thursday As a Murderer Confesses

And now for something different!

I don’t watch Dr. Phil. I saw 10 minutes once, and that was 10 minutes too long.

I vowed to never write about Dr. Phil.

But when Mark Augustine Castellano kills his paramour, and then confesses to Dr. Phil two days before he confesses to police, how can you resist?

The 37 year old Texas computer technician had a fire and ice relationship with 31 year old Michelle Warner. They had a 3 year old son in between splitsville. Sometimes she went to live with an alternative, part time boy friend.

September 22 was one of those times when he snapped. Indeed, he snapped her neck in Houston, wrapped her in plastic and later drove her body 500 miles to West Texas. He pondered how to dispose of the corpus delicti for a day and a half, while her body marinated in the car, her car. He unceremoniously dumped her into an oil field ditch, covering it with dirt.

Her family reported her missing three days later. He told the police she had taken off, as she was sometimes wont to do, leaving her 3 year old son behind. He had trouble explaining to the Houston police how she left since he had driven her car to Odessa in West Texas.

The police couldn’t figure it out.

Mark may be a computer technician, but he’s not a rocket scientist. He showed up to tape a full confession with Dr. Phil. Todays rule is if you suffer from guilt, then you must confess with Dr. Phil on the air. Let it all hang. out, on air, for the whole world and then Youtube. You shall be released, but not freed.

Sidebar to a legal technicality - Any pyscho-therapist-patient privilege of confidentiality is not going to work with an on-the-air national broadcast.

The plot thickens when her family flies out to also tape with Dr. Phil. We have a missing woman, but it’s Showtime!

Texas once had a statutory privilege whereby a man could kill his wife and her lover if he caught them in flagrante delicto. It did not apply to anticipatory cheating by a girlfriend.

Texas frowns upon homicide. Only the fact that the murder did not appear premeditated will save him from the executioner. Gross stupidity is not a capital offense in Texas.

Mark provided a full confession to the police two days after meeting with Dr. Phil. He directed them to her body.

This is Hollywood. Mark should get high ratings and his 15 minutes of fame on Dr. Phil.

The show is scheduled to air Thursday.

I will not watch.

First Monday in October: The Supreme Court or Arnold Schwarzenegger??

The Supreme Court’s Session begins on the first Monday in October. Thus, we should be writing about the new Supreme Court term.

However, Governor Schwarzenegger’s autobiography, Total Recall, came out today. Thus, we should be discussing the Governator.

The Supreme Court or Schwarzenegger? That is the question.

The Future of America

The Supreme Court

Sex, titillation, lascivious conduct

The Governor

Why not Sex and the Supremes?

That’s an oxymoron.

Diana Ross and the Supremes sounds good. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Supremes is abhorrent.

Let’s do both separately.

It’s easy to start with the Governor. Tell me when his 646 page book is in the Dollar Closeout Bin, and I might buy it. I also did not watch the 60 Minute Interview. No reason exists to feed his ego.

Total Recall is the inappropriate title of his book. Total recall is what the voters of California did to his incompetent predecessor Gray Davis. Total recall is what the voters of California should have done to Governor Schwarzenegger when he abandoned his principles and accelerated California’s ride into bankruptcy.

The media cares he screwed Maria Shriver, Brigitte Nielsen, Mildred Baena, and a host of others. He lived by Hollywood mores.

That’s nothing compared to screwing the 38 million people of California, and sullying what was left of the Republican image in California.

Chapter One of his book should be entitled “The Art of Leadership”

The first word in the chapter should be “Cojones.”  Golda Meir had them; Arnold doesn’t. Margaret Thatcher has them; Arnold doesn’t. Deloris Huerta has cojones. Arnold doesn’t. Angela Merkel has them. Not the Governor who kept checking which way the wind was blowing.

Perhaps all the steroids he ingested affected him.

Total recall? Selective Recall is more the case. Apparently nothing about his history of sexual harassment; nor a more inclusive discussion of his affairs. Perhaps they were all an affair to forget. His being an “expert in living in denial” provides the proper title for his book, “Living in Denial.”

Does he talk about Senate Majority Leader John Burton approaching him on the ballot measure to bond the state deficit as a one-time solution to the state’s deficit, presumably to resolve the problem once and forever. The issue was not the bond, but the companion measure for a hard cap on state spending, which the state voters would have passed at the point.

Senator Burton is reputed to have warned the Governor that the teacher’s unions would have defeated him for reelection. The non-Governator then substituted a leaky rainy day fund for the hard cap.

Does he recall how he caved after the nurses’ union picketed him?

Does he recall why he hired a Democratic apparatchik as his Chief of Staff?

Does he explain how he became a tax and spend liberal?

Does he explain how he would fly a private jet from LA to Sacramento round trip every day he met in Sacramento while pushing a carbon control bill through the Legislature?

The failed governor is apparently on a self-promotion tour to rehabilitate his image. He also founded the Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global policy at the University of Southern California.

His ego won't let him fade quietly into the night.

And now to the Supreme Court. This is another critical year for the Court with the major cases pending before it. That’s the case every year.

Affirmative action  - yet again. Voting rights – yet again. Alien Torts Claims Act – yet again. The unlawful usurpation of power by the Obama EPA- yet again. Gay marriage – that’s new.

The difference this year is not the caseload, but the status of Chief Justice Roberts. Now that he has tasted the dark side by affirming ObamaCare, will he be seduced by it?

The fellow Justices are all politically savvy. The four stalwart conservatives have said their opinions of the Chief have not changed. They may say that publicly, but they will not forget.

The Justices have great respect for each other. They understand that each votes his or her own conscience pursuant to a core set of values. They may disagree judicially, but the respect is there.

Not this time. The Chief Justice, for reasons known only to him, ignored his oath to uphold the Constitution, while apparently caving to political pressure “to uphold the Court’s image.” If so, he failed. The Court’s unfavorable image has now hit a 25 year high while the favorability image continues to drop. He has turned the Court’s image into that of just another political agency. The Court should be above politics.

The Chief Justice, the otherwise brilliant Harvard grad, seems to have forgotten that our federal government is one of enumerated powers. His decision essentially points the way to a monolithic national government.

Which Chief Justice will judge this year? Is the answer blowing in the wind?

The Governator and the Chief: Not Two Profiles in Courage