Be Wary of Today's Polls and Prognosticators for the 2014 Midterm Elections

The polls and prognosticators give the Republicans a high probability of winning control of the Senate in November, as well as gaining House seats. The Republicans need a net gain of six. The consensus is that they have three of the six in hand: Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. The consensus and polls currently favor the Republican candidates in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, and Louisiana, with Colorado and New Hampshire in reach. The optimal outcome for Republicans would be to sweep these states while salivating in Michigan and Minnesota, and holding on to Republican seats in Georgia, Kansas, and Kentucky. Don’t trust the polls, or my predictions, which are notoriously unreliable. The most accurate polls are at the ballot box on election days, absent voter fraud. The polls can usually measure the sentiment of voters at the time they are taken. They do not accurately measure though the effect of early voting, such as absentee voting. Nor do they predict election day turnout or early voting. Polling is irrelevant for those who voted earlier, but would later wish to change heir votes. The Republicans thought they had a good ground game in 2012 to get out the vote. The Democrats knew they did. The Obama Campaign relied on data mining to predict individual votes and get them to the polls, such as with early voting. The President at the top of the ticket pulled in scores of Democratic candidates down the ticket. The Democrats got their supporters, such as students, to fill in their ballots in advance and then mail them in. The National GOP claims to have learnt the lessons of 2012. The Democrats claim to be applying the 2012 techniques to state elections. November will decide. The Republicans pioneered early voting in the form of absentee ballots. Senator John Fitzgerald Kennedy defeated Vice President Richard Nixon in the 1960 Presidential Election. The initial ballot count showed JFK winning California, but the final tally of absentee ballots decided the state for the Vice President. The Democrats have jumped ahead of the Republicans in all form of of early voting. The next factor on the Democrats’ side is their large advantage in fundraising. We can decry the President’s extensive fundraising, but he is the Presidential fund raiser par excellence. He held 49 campaign fundraisers this year through mid-September. We can question his competence and judgment in many areas; we don’t know his golf scores, SAT, LSAT, or academic record, but he has excelled in trolling for dollars for Democrats. Thus, both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (the House) and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are flush with cash, substantially out raising their Republican counterparts, the House Committee by $32.6 million and the Senate Committee by almost $30 million. The effect of the funding differential is currently seen in the North Carolina Senatorial Campaign. Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan should be in trouble, but her campaign and supporters have spent millions in recent ads, but the Republicans have held back. If you want my eternally optimistic predictions, Republicans will gain 10 Democratic Senate seats, and lose none of their own. They will regain many of the House seats they lost in 2012 and end up with a new gain of 12 in the House. They will gain the Colorado governorship, but lose in Pennsylvania. If you want to make money in the stock market, find out what I am planning to but (which is not often), and then sell short.

News Flash:"New York City Covers Up Mayor de Balsio's Groundhog Murder"

News Flash: “New York City Cover Up Mayor de Blasio’s Groundhog Murder” No, that’s neither an actual newsflash nor political ad, but it could be if the Mayor were running for reelection this year – displaying the banality of so much negative advertising. Here’s what happened. Groundhog Day, February 2, is celebrated nationally. Perhaps it’s not a national holiday, but it is in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Punxsutawney Phil is a weather forecaster. The urban legend is that if he emerges from his burrow, sees his shadow, and then crawls back into it, six more weeks of winter will follow. The Groundhog’s fame is spreading. New York Mayor de Blasio was celebrating Groundhog Day in New York City. He was holding up Chuck, a infamous groundhog, in his arms. Chuck, Charles G. Hogg, is revered in the Big Apple for taking a bite out of Mayor Bloomberg in 2009. It’s not totally clear from the video if Chuck squirted out, jumped out, or if the Da Mayor released him. but Chuck clearly sought his freedom. The Mayor’s Party hearted laughter is caught on video, perhaps giving rise to a PETA outrage moment. Groundhog Day would be Chuck’s Independence Day. Groundhogs are not cats with nine lives, always landing on their feet. Chuck landed head first to a round of raucous laughter. Chuck seemed fine, but died a week later of “sudden internal injuries,” the exact cause” of which was undetermined, according to the Staten Island Zoo The Zoo did not inform the Mayor’s Office of Chuck’s death. The New York Post engaged in an act of investigatory reporting. It disclosed that not only was the Zoo covering up Chuck’s death, but also that Chuck was not Chuck, but ten month old Charlotte. Woodchucks apparently all look alike. The New York Times in a followup Page One article on Friday, September 26 discussed the Mayor’s “poor hands,” my phrase, not the Times. The Zoo has four groundhogs, selecting them as “Chuck or a Day.” Hence, we create a semi-truthful lead: “Mayor de Blasio involved with a coverup of Chuck’s death.” My serious point is the descent into gutter politics, the politics of personal destruction, where truth is totally irrelevant. Don’t let the truth get in the way of an ad or soundbite. If you don’t like the message, shoot the messenger. The example so far of the most desperate, deceitful, despicable ad is by Mark Begich, the independent, and increasingly desperate, Democratic Senator of Alaska against his Republican opponent, Dan Sullivan.. The facts are that Jerry Active was arrested on May 25, 2013 for the murder of a couple and the sexual assault of their two year old granddaughter. The case has not yet gone to trial. He pled guilty to a Class C Felony in 2007. He was arrested on January 29, 2009, and charged with several crimes, including the sexual assault of an 11 year old. The 2007 felony should have resulted in a minimum sentence of eight years under Alaska law, but a computer search failed to find it. He was sentenced to 4 years in prison in September 2010 less time served. He was released in October 2011. The ad accuses Sullivan of being soft on child sex offenders. The blatant misstatements in the ad are that Dan Sullivan only served as Alaska’s Attorney from June 2009 to December 2010. He was not in office when the staff failed to find the original confliction nor when Active received an early release in October 2013. Dan Sullivan was on active duty with the Marines from June 2009 to December 2010. He was not in Anchorage when the release agreement was reached. The ad was a fictional creation. The victims’ family requested the ad be pulled. He waited five days before pulling it off the air.

Cadillac Loves New York

Will Someone tell Cadillac that Detroit is Back Detroit is back. Dan Snyder is boosting downtown Detroit. The Big Three is running on full, boosting production, employment and profits. Chrysler’s Made in Detroit ad is propping up Fiat. Ford survived and prospered without a bailout. GM is making money despite the $.59 ignition switch. Cadillac though is in a 17 year decline. Changing brand names hasn’t helped. Aside from Escalade, can you name a Cadillac brand? Free association: If I throw out a car name, what first comes to mind? BMW? Mercedes? Porsche? Volvo? Infiniti? Now, what about Cadillac? 1997 was the last year Cadillac led luxury car sales in the United States. The 112 year old brand is on a 17 year slide. Johan de Nysschen was appointed Cadillac’s President in August. He came from Infiniti, having previously worked for Audi. He was born in the other USA, the Union of South Africa. He announced a few days ago that Cadillac’s headquarters was moving from Detroit to SoHo. Johan loves New York. Cadillac’s problem is that rebadging a droll Chevy into an overpriced Caddy doesn’t compete with the Germans. Or Japanese. Or Koreans. Cadillac’s problem is that its perceived quality does not match that of the foreign cars, as illustrated by the Cimarron. United States sales for luxury cars through August this year show BMW with 211,005 Bimmers, 34,969 Minis and 600 Rolls, Mercedes slightly below with 221,471, followed by Lexus with 198,831 despite its the quality problems. Audi sold 116,066 cars, about 2,000 ahead of Cadillac’s 114,008, which barely led Acura’s 105,918. Infiniti, de Nysschen’s previous employer, sold 77,043 cars. Luxury car sales are up 15% this year. Cadillac is down 4.7%, a drag on GM. Cadillac’s only consolation is that it outsells Lincoln almost 2:1. The move has a fatal problem. Only sales and marketing is moving to New York. Product development (design and engineering) stays in Detroit. De Nysschen recognizes the need to resurrect Cadillac as an “aspirational brand.” Johan explained the move to SoHo: “There is no city in the world where the inhabitants are more immersed in a premium life style than in New York.” Mary Barra, GM’s CEO, added: “When you think about New York, it’s the perfect place to be. It’s where luxury is defined. It’s trend-setting – so I think it’s going to be very, very positive.” Mark Reuss, GM’s head of global product development, purchasing, and supply chain, echoed them. He said it’s time for “some fresh thinking for Cadillac.” A GM press flack described the SoHo site as a “multipurpose brand and event space in conjunction with modern loft offices located in the heart of a city renowned for establishing trends and setting standards for the global luxury market.” Has he heard of Rodeo Drive? GM’s management dilemma is that, having just hired de Nysschen to rejuvenate Cadillac, it has to stick with him, at least for awhile. It’s too early to admit yet another mistake. Has anyone told de Nysschen that 15 competitors have design studios in Southern California? Mercedes is in Carlsbad, BMW in Newbury Park, and Audi in Santa Monica. If he’s interested in chic, hip, and vibrant, if he’s interested in appealing to the pre-62, affluent non-white males, Silicon Valley, Seattle or Hollywood are where to go. There’s also San Francisco where no Detroit auto company has a dealership. He recognizes the need to leave “behind our traditional customer base,” but he won’t find the new base in SoHo. If he’s interested in selling Cadillacs, he should walk around SoHo and count with the fingers on one hand, the Cadillacs in SoHo. Fletcher Jones, the largest Mercedes dealer, is here in Orange County. It’s already sold over 5,000 Mercedes this year, the equivalent of 5% of all U.S. Cadillac sales. Fletcher Jones recently opened an Audi dealership in Beverly Hills. If he’s entranced by New York City, he could ask Chrysler why they dropped the Fifth Avenue, Manhattan, and New Yorker. He should ask how many Cadillacs Potemkin sells in Manhattan, and then check out BMW of Manhattan’s satellite office at 57 Wall Street. GM once had an alternate headquarters in Manhattan. The lobby now hosts the F.A.O. Schwartz flagship store. The plaza has a famous Apple Store. Johan de Nysschen is no Steve Jobs.

The Spirit of Mike Harari Lives On

Mike Harari, one of Mossad’s greatest operatives, died Sunday at the age of 87. Harari led a full life, indeed more lives in one lifetime than many of us will ever experience. Some of his exploits are well known, but most still remain secret. Marwan Kawasme and Amar Abu Aysha were killed by Israeli forces yesterday in the spirit of retaliation perfected by Mike Harari. Mike Harari was born in Tel Aviv on April 28, 1927 during the British Mandate. He joined the Palmach, lying about his age. He was sent to Europe after World War II to help the Jewish survivors immigrate to the pre-Israel Palestine. He joined Shin Bet and organized the security for Lod Airport, now Ben Gurion Airport. He founded the Kidon unit of Mossad. Kidon’s specialty is innovative assassinations of Israel’s enemies. He played an integral role in the planning of Operation Thunderbolt, the rescue of the hostages held at Entebbe Airport. The only Israeli soldier killed in the rescue operation was Yoni Netanyahu, the brother of Israel’s current Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. The Prime Minister called Mike Harari “one of the great warriors for Israel’s security.” Black September, an affiliate of Yassir Arafat’s PLO, killed 11 Jewish athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics. Israel through Michael Harari’s unit tracked down and killed those believed responsible for Munich. Mistakes happen. Lillehammer was the most unfortunate for Harari. Ali Hassan Salameh was the believed mastermind of Munich. The team thought they had traced him to Lillehammer, Norway, and misidentified Ahmed Bochiki as Ali. They proceeded to assassinate Ahmed in front of his seven months pregnant wife. The operation blew up, resulting in an international backlash. Mike Harari succeeded with killing Salamaeh 5½ years later with a bomb. Israel does not forget its enemies. Nor does it forgive. Prime minister Golda Meir rejected Harari’s resignation letter, saying much work remained to be done. He formally retired from Mossad in 1980. He continued and became involved with Israel’s attempts to scuttle Iran’s development of the Bomb. He may be the official who came up with the idea of killing Iran’s nuclear scientists, of whom at least 4 have died so far. Israel does not forget its attackers. Marwan Kawasme and Amar Abu Aiyha, two Hamas terrorists, kidnapped and killed three Jewish teenagers on June 12, 2014 near Hebron. They essentially signed their own death warrants that night for the murders of Gilad Shaar, Naftali Frankel, and Eyal Yofrach. Israeli forces killed them September 23 in a shootout. Kawasme’s mother called him a hero and Hamas, as usual, referred to them as martyrs. These Hamas ‘martyrs” ignited a 50 day war, resulting in thousands of mostly innocent deaths and the destruction of much of Gaza. Mike Harari’s spirit lives on. He would be proud of the IDF with the end of the two murderers.

The Obama Administration Issued Today Anti-Inversion Restrictions; Where is the Outrage Over Pabst, TRW Automotive, Dresser Rand, Sigma Aldrich, and Even GE Appliances?

My earlier blog on August 11, 2008 focused on the economic folly of the demagoguery against “inversion” corporate mergers to lower United States corporate taxes. (“The Insidious Inversion Perversion: An Exercise in Economic Ignorance”). The anti-inversion campaign is a continuation of the Obama Administration’s fairly successful 7 year class warfare campaign. They continue to wage it because it resonates with a significant segment of voters. I pointed out that U.S. corporations could simply sell out to foreign corporations, causing long term damage to the economy. The real corporate headquarters will now be overseas, with a substantial loss of high paying executive jobs. Corporate tax payments to the Treasury will fall substantially since the survivor corporation will only pay corporate income taxes on the United States earnings. The previous headquarters city will suffer a loss in taxes, employment, and civic involvement in the community. The new corporation will not have the same interest in contributing to the cultural and academic institutions of its former home. The Obama Administration issued today through the Department of the Treasury regulations designed to limit inversion mergers. The proposed inversion merger of Burger King with Canada’s Tim Hortons was too much for the Obama Administration to swallow. As with past attempts to limit inversion mergers, the corporate attorneys will find ways around these new regs, which might not even be legal. The solution to inversion is to lower the corporate tax rates to a competitive level with countries, such as Canada or Ireland. No outcry has been raised against the recently announced takeovers of large American companies by foreign concerns. Germany’s Merck (not the American Merck) announced today the acquisition of St. Louis based Sigma-Aldrich Corp. for $17 billion. The $97 billion Siemens Company of Germany announced yesterday the acquisition of Houston Based Dresser-Rand Corporation and its $3 billion in sales for $7.6 billion. It was announced last week that Pabst Brewing Company, along with it brands of Old Milwaukee, Colt 45, Schlitz, Lone Star, Rainier, and Old Style, was being sold to a Russian company, Oasis Beverages. Pabst now joins the three larger beer companies, Anheuser Busch (Belgium), Millers (South Africa) and Coors (Canada) in being foreign owned. Germany’s ZF Friedrichshafen, AG agreed on September 15 to acquire TRW Automobile Holding Corporation of Livonia, Michigan. TRW is one of the largest American auto parts company. Michigan can hardly afford to lose another pillar of the auto industry. Finally, it’s not a merger, but GE agreed to sell its appliance business to Electrolux, a Swedish company. Electrolux already owns the previously American brands of Frigidaire, Gibson, Kelvinator, Philco, Tappan, and White Westinghouse. American jobs will be cut as Electrolux consolidates its United States appliance operations. Not an outcry; Not even a peep from the Obama Administration which professes to be concerned about saving American jobs and preventing the loss of tax revenues through tax maneuvers. Cheap politics; bad economics!

The Last Hurrah: Edwin Edwards is Back

The Last Hurrah was a best selling political novel published in 1956 and an outstanding movie in 1958. The 72 year old Mayor Frank Skeffington was running for a fifth term.Time had past the old New Deal, machine politician. The plot is playing out in Louisiana. Edwin Edwards, the former Congressman, the former Governor, the ex-con is back. Edwin Edwards, the incorrigible, irascible, irrepressible gambler, philanderer, and raconteur is seeking redemption. Edwin Edwards, the fertile octogenarian, wishes to prove he still has it. Edwin Edwards, the non-Creole Creole, is ineligible to vote as a convicted felon, but he can run for Congress. He is seeking election to the open Sixth Congressional District in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The District is heavily Republican, but he just might do it as a liberal, licentious Democrat under Louisiana’s election system where all candidates run on a single ballot. He simply explains: “I am the only hope the Democrats have.” If no candidate receives at least a majority of the votes cast, then the top two will run off in a special election. If it comes down to the reformer or a Republican, mano-a-mano, Edwin Edwards could find redemption. He is seeking election against a score of Republicans, who will probably split the Republican vote, allowing him a clear path to the runoff. One-on-one anything goes. His traditional coalition of Creoles, African Americans and labor could turn out for his last hurrah. He told the Life Baptist Church congregation in Baton Rouge that “My God is not finished with me yet.” Praise be to God. Edwin Edwards was often the most popular politician in Louisiana. He only lost one election in his career. He uttered these famous words during his 1983 campaign: ”The only way I can lose this election is if I’m caught in bed with a dead girl or live boy.” Voters overlooked his reputation for ethical imperfection. He was one of the first established Democratic politicians in the South to embrace civil rights for African Americans. The politician was born in 1927. He served in Congress from 1965 – 1972. He was elected to four terms as Governor, from 1972-1980, 1984-1988, and 1992-1996. Edwin Edwards was sometimes lucky in his opponents. His 1991 Republican candidate was David Duke, a former Grand Wizard of the Knights of the Ku Klux Klan and a neo-Nazi. A popular campaign bumper sticker was “Vote for the crook. It’s important.” Federal prosecutors unsuccessfully pursued him for years, but finally convicted him in 2001 of multiple counts of racketeering and corruption. The gist of the charges was that he sought kickbacks for licensing riverboat casinos in Louisiana. Among the accused bribers was Edward G. DeBartolo, Jr., then owner of the champion San Francisco 49ers. The former governor served time in the federal pen from October 2002 to January 2011. 2013 was a significant year for the 86 year old reprobate. He was released from parole in February 2013, and wasted no time in running for Congress. He had previously married his third wife, Trina, a few years earlier. Trina, a Republican, was only 51 years younger than him, being born in August 1978. She delivered their child, Eli Wallace Edwards, on August 1, 2013. The Edwards started a reality show on October 27, 2013, “The Governor’s Wife.” He responded, when asked about electing crooked politicians: “People say, well, they’re all crooks anyway. You might as well send an experienced one.” What a Final Hurrah it would be! Edwin Edwards cannot vote in Louisiana, but he may vote in Congress.

Dear President Obama; Don't Look Back. Noone Follows When You Lead From the Rear

When did “Hope and Change” and “Yes, we can” become “Lead from Behind?” Leading from the rear is not a strategy for no one is following. The President is still looking for a strategy, much less a coalition. President George H. W. Bush marshaled an army of half a million from a host of countries to drive Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. His coalition included Arab and non-Arab countries with boots on the ground. President George H. W. Bush went through the United Nations, the Arab League, and Congress. President George W. Bush assembled a “Coalition of the Willing” of 39 countries with 25,000 boots on the ground. He twice received Congressional approval for the Second Gulf War. President Obama has assembled a “Coalition of the Unwilling” with no boots on the grounds, refusals to campaign in Syria, and little air support, but “40” countries with facile support. England, our special relationship with England, ended with the return of the Churchill Bust, the cheap gift to Queen Elizabeth, and repudiation of the special relationship. Great Britain, which has stood with us for a century, will not bomb Syria and will put no boots on the ground. Turkey, which has stood with NATO and the West for seven decades, will not let us use Turkish airbases for an air campaign against ISIS. President Erdogan of Turkey will not even talk to President Obama. Turkey has a 560 mile frontier with Syria. It is indefensible for much of its distance and smugglers travel easily through the mountains. 1,000 young Turks have joined ISIS. France, which has been supporting its allies in Africa, will not release bombs in Syria. Germany has said no. Poland remembers President Obama pulled the ABM defense out of Poland. Saudi Arabia and other Mideast countries are deathly afraid of ISIS, but they are also scared that their soldiers will not fight the Islamicists, but could well defect to them. The Saudis and others will not risk an armed confrontation unless they are convinced the United States will carry the war through to victory. President Obama and his Administration cannot even agree if it is a war. They will not follow someone who leads from the rear, assuming he is leading at all. Who will be in the lead? Sunnis? Shia? The world looks at President Obama’s proclaimed strategy of 1) no boots on the ground, 2) a unilateral pullout from Iraq and soon Afghanistan, 3) targeted air strikes, which Andrew J. Bacevich in a Los Angeles Times op-ed referred to as “Whack-a-Mole,” and 4) now his command that he must approve each air strike. Even the military brass foresees a failed strategy. The world sees a failed strategy. The American public sees a failed strategy. We remember that President Johnson’s White House had to approve the air strikes in Vietnam. We know how badly that worked out. The proclaimed “Most Brilliant man” in America, who has succeeded so well in economics, history, and religion, (“ISIL is not Islamic”) will now test his expertise in military science. This Administration is even reaching out to Iran for assistance, compounding one failed strategy on another failed strategy. The world knows President Obama provides MRE's and blankets to the Ukrainians fighting Russian aggression, but not the heavy arms they need. No "Shock and Awe," Just "Ah Shucks." The President orates and pontificates while IS, ISIS, ISIL seizes more towns and territory. Following from the rear with no confidence is not a strategy! President Barack Hussein Obama still lacks a plan, and the World knows it.