Initial Views on the Palisades and Eaton Los Angeles Wildfire Disaster

By way of background, while I am not well known, I have analyzed, written, published, and presented on disasters and tragedies for decades. We are still in “the fog of war” stage of the disaster, but facts are emerging, which often contradict earlier statements. Every major disaster and tragedy have three stages: 1) Reducing the Risks 2) The Response Effort 3) Recovery Initial thoughts and caveats: Every mass disaster, tragedy, human or natural, has many causes and responsible parties. Natural hazards and poor decision-making resulted in the firestorms blowing past the firefighters in the Palisades and Eaton fires. A worse case natural hazard coupled with a woefully unprepared city resulted in a cataclysmic disaster. Los Angeles is a densely populated area with limited access and egress, especially in the hilly areas. Los Angeles is a city, a county, and a state of mind. Southern California has a historical pattern: heavy precipitation, then mudslides and landslides, and thick vegetation, followed by drought, and then wildfires. California faces catastrophic seismic and wildfire risks. Over-protection against one can amplify the risk against the other. For example, a concrete blockhouse style building will protect against wildfires, but could be deadly in a wildfire. Infrastructure is often under-funded and under-maintained. Only when a disaster, such as the Palisades and Eaton Fires, showcase the inadequacies of existing infrastructure does a belated, expensive response occur. Finally, big fires out of little embers grow. Fire fighters have to contain a fire quickly in a wind-driven event else the fire spread quickly. Risk Reduction Emergencies happen, ranging from catastrophic to minor. The key is to have in place a viable emergency action plan. The Los Angeles Fire Department has contingency plans in place, including for fierce Santa Ana winds. Similar forecasts occurred in 2011. The LAFD pre-positioned equipment and personnel and kept firefighters at work. Not this time. One way to minimize the impact of natural disasters is to limit development, but no livable location in America is risk free from geological or meteorological risks: avalanches, blizzards, earthquakes, flooding, hurricanes, landslides, tornados, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, wildfires and windstorms. Southern California is especially vulnerable to earthquakes and wildfires. 334 million Americans have to live somewhere. They spread out from the cities into the suburbs, exurbs, the hills and the coastline. The interface between the forest and the urban increases both the risks of a wildfire and the difficulties of fighting wildfires. Leadership The response revealed a failure of leadership. Fire fighters and law enforcement on the line responded as best they could under the circumstances. Fire chiefs, police chiefs, sheriffs and local officials addressed the public from their perspectives, but no overall leader emerged. The public needs a strong leader projecting confidence and strength in a crisis. Mayor Karen Bass was on a junket to Ghana for the inauguration of a new President of Ghana. She remained silent. Mayor Bass is a feelgood politician with a warm smile. She was at a cocktail reception while Palisades burned. A leader under pressure, she is not. She was warned about the wildfire risks, but left for Ghana anyway. She told the New York Times four years ago that she would not travel internationally. She’s been to Ghana, Mexico, and Paris three times so far. Just a typical politician. She had also cut the budget of the Los Angeles Fire Department by $17.3 million. Her reelection campaign is up in smoke. The LA Fire Department has about 100 fire engines, trucks, and ambulances out of service because of inadequate maintenance – mechanics and parts. Governor Gavin Newsom’s first response, a la Newsom, was to cast blame. He pointed fingers at others, explaining he was not fully informed by local officials. He also wanted to find out what happened to the water. Governor Newsom, obsessed with delusions of running for President, said he was reaching out to Washington for support. California spends more on the homeless than fire protection. He supported the protection of the delta smelt and other environmental values, reducing water supply to Southern California and farmers. He’s been tagged with “fish over people.” He now cries out against disinformation. He cut the fire prevention budget by $100 million and bragged about removing a dam. His presidential ambitions are up in smoke. His goal two months ago was to Trump Proof California, a Constitutional delusion. The 2021-22 California state budget contained $988 million for wildfire prevention. The current amount is $200 million. On the other hand, California spends between $6 – 9 billion annually on fighting wildfires and cleanup. Fram Filter had a great add decades ago: ‘Pay me now, or pay me later.” He should have Fire Proofed California. He wanted to Trump Proof California with at least $25 million, but upped the ante to $50 million. He is delusional; he has to go to the Trump Administration to bail out Los Angeles. He’s not going to like the conditions. He should have Fire Proofed California. Governor Newsom and Mayor Bass are looking to Washington for an endless source of funds to rebuild LA. Money will come from Washington, but President Trump and the Republican Congress will limit their largess. President Biden and a Democratic Congress would have opened the spigots, pouring money into Southern California and whatever other pet projects they could attach and large amounts for waste, fraud, and a bonanza for planners. Mayor Bass was allocating more money for the homeless than fighting fire. California spends more on building the bullet train than firefighting and protection. Mayor Bass placed her Deputy Mayor Brian Williams on leave in December. His responsibilities include the Los Angeles Fire Department, Los Angeles Police Department, Port of Los Angeles Police, airport police, and Emergency Management Department. He was accused of making a bomb threat in September. A vacuum in city leadership. Mayor Bass and Governor Newsom are professional politicians. They are very good at raising taxes and then spending it on favorite causes, which does not include infrastructure. The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (DWP) and the Los Angeles Fire Department are prime examples of deferred maintenance. President Biden touched down in Los Angeles. He had these comments: 1) He was proud to be a new great grandfather. 2) It appears the residence of his son Hunter had survived, but he wasn’t sure. No doubt should further exist that President Biden is out of touch with reality. Fire Response Disaster planners, including fire chiefs, know wildfires are a constant problem in California, especially when Santa Ana winds strike. California has a long history with both urban and rural wildfires. California has incurred hundreds of horrific urban and rural wildfires, Oakland Hills in 1991, the Camp Fire (Paradise) in 2018, Woolsey Fire (2018), and the 2017 Tubbs Fire (Santa Rosa) are examples. These urban wildfires show how vulnerability of our metropolitan areas. The preventative and response lessons from earlier fires were not followed. Los Angeles was unprepared. Some measures may not protect in a wildfire with flames shooting horizontally and vertically at 100mph, but they could slow or stop the spread. Little embers can lead to large fires. Replace wood roofs. One shake roof, now banned in California, can ignite an entire neighborhood. Build with metal or clay roofs with no roof lines where embers can land. Other measures include covered chimneys and no open vents. Stucco, often used in building exteriors, is flame resistant, but also a poor insulator. Brush clearance is imperative. Defensive space of at least 5 feet, free of trees and brush, should surround a dwelling. LA knew for years of the need to remove dry brush, aka kindling, from the hilly slopes: “Clear the floor.” They did not do so. A herd of goats is a highly efficient, low-cost way to remove brush. Prescribed burns can reduce brush. Use double layered Tempered glass, which keep the glass windows from bursting open, creating a pathway into the dwelling. The Palisades Fire is a worse case scenario. Santa Ana winds may blow 50mph, but this one was on steroids, up to 100mph. it was foreseeable. The National Weather Service provided specific warnings of the Santa Ana winds. The fire fighters knew the risk of a major conflagration was possible. They said they pre-positioned some equipment and personnel. They arranged assistance from other fire departments. They did a modicum of pre-stationing equipment with none in the Palisades. Only five fire engines were staffed. They had detailed plans in how to prepare for an urban wildfire. They were not followed. They were only able to pre-position five fire engines, none in the Palisades. Shifts were changing. They sent 1,000 fire fighters home, instead of keeping them on duty – reducing overtime expenditures. Conversely the LAFD pre-deployed 40 engines in 2011 after similar dire warnings. Patrick Butler, former LAFD Assistant Chief, said “we could not take any chances on this, because the risk was too great.” Not the same attitude of the current senior management of LAFD. Little embers lead to big fires. DWP has a dysfunctional history coupled with deferred maintenance. The current director, Janisse Quinones, says the systems were working. She did not mention the 117 million galloon Santa Ynez Reservoir which has sat empty in Pacific Palisades since February 2024. It might not have stopped the wildfire, but the waters could have saved some homes or slowed the spread. She stated the fire hydrants were working, but many in fact, including some in Pacific Palisades, were inoperable. She said she took the job “with an equity lens and social justice.” A 1961 wildfire in Bel-Air and Brentwood destroyed almost 500 homes. LA responded. The city built 13 fire stations and the Santa Ynez Reservoir in the Pacific Palisades “to increase fire protection.” The reservoir was emptied because of a tear in its cover because of fear insects could contaminate the drinking water. DWP, and its director, saw no need for urgency in filling the reservoir. The Los Angeles Fire Chief, Kristin Crowley, has made DEI a priority since 2022. Deputy Chief of Diversity Kristine Larson is recorded on tape responding if female firefighters are “strong enough to do this?” She responded to the question if she could carry a husband out of a fire? “He got himself in the wrong place if I have to carry him out of a fire.” Public Health and Safety, not DEI and Equity, are the primary responsibilities of the government. They took their eyes off the ball. Chief Crowley’s DEI campaign was accomplished by an exodus of the senior firefighters, which may explain some of the poor decision-making. None were called back before the fires. Their expertise might have resulted in better decision-making. DEI also distracts from the primary mission of protecting public safety. Current personnel look over their shoulders if they think they might be the “next-to-go” to make room for DEI. Some duty officers made a series of catastrophically poor decisions. One major response effort in emergencies is timely evacuation orders. West Alhambra, a historic African-American middle class neighborhood, was devasted in the Eaton Fire. The fire began at 6:18pm and spread through West Alhambra. The first evacuation order was not sent out until 3:25am, nine hours later, when flames were already consuming much of the community. Seventeen died in West Alhambra. Residents in West Alhambra phoned the emergency center when they saw flames approaching towards them. They were told the need to evacuate was not posted; therefore they were OK. Many were able to get out with only minutes to spare. 17 perished in Alhambra, all in west Alhambra. Alhambra is in the jurisdiction of the sheriff’s office – not the LAPD. The Causes of the Palisades and Eaton Fires. Contemporaneous reports claim the Palisades fire reignited on January 7 from a previous January 1 fire that the LAFD had quickly extinguished, or not. The LAFD does not have a practice of revisiting previous burns. The said it reignited on January 7, but the LAFD did not quickly respond. They were too late. Big fires from little embers burn. One theory is that the Eaton Fire of Altadena/Pasadena may have been caused by equipment of Southern California Edison, the utility. The utility says it might have started in a nearby homeless encampment. The causes will be discovered and learnt from. Many public officials (elected or appointment) will lose their jobs.

Does a leopard change its spots? Does the Media change its spots?

Does a leopard change its spots? Does the Media change its spots? Nope! Neither can the mainstream media. We have the tale of the scorpion and frog. The scorpion needed to cross the river. The scorpion asked the frog to carry it across the river. The frog refused, saying you will sting me, and I will die. The scorpion said “No, if I do that then I will also die.” The frog consented. The scorpion stung the frog halfway across the river. The dying frog asked the scorpion why it stung him. The scorpion responded: “Creature of Habit.” So too is the mainstream media. They can’t control themselves. The daily columnist diatribes against President Trump are underway. The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post, Boston Globe, Philadelphia Inquirer, MSNBC and CNN et al continue to revile President Trump, his appointees, and pronouncements. First it was Matt Gaetz, now it’s Pete Hegseth. Next it will be Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK, Jr. They continue to moralize against Republicans and ignore the transgressions of Democrats. The New York Times ran a large on how the Trump Family will economically benefit from his Presidency. The sounds of silence existed with Hunter Biden’s multi-million dollar “pay-to-play” deals with China, Russia, and ??? Vice President Kamala Harris as a young attorney in the San Francisco City Attorneys Office slept with the married, 60 year old Mayor Willie Brown of San Francisco. Her husband, Doug Emhoff, was divorced by his first wife because he impregnated the nanny. He also had the reputation of a misogynist partner of his law firm. Not a peep from the mainstream media as they excoriate the moral failings, actual or alleged, or missteps by Republicans. The columnists are asserting President Trump’s win was not a landslide, similar to the earlier claims that inflation is not a problem. It’s no longer a landslide in their eyes because he polled slightly less than 50%. If you remove California and its ballot harvesting late votes from the vote count, he would have more than 50% of the total votes. They’re worried President Trump will have his hands on the trigger of the nuclear bomb, forgetting he had already been President for four years with his hands on the trigger. They fret that the Justice department will become a department of persecutions, which is what it’s been the past four years. They’re worried he will seek revenge against his political enemies. Did they break the law? Was there a conspiracy between prosecutors in New York State, New York City, Atlanta and the Justice Department to destroy President Trump’s candidacy, such like the earlier Russia conspiracy and Mueller investigation of 8 years ago. They celebrated the demise of Representative Matt Gaetz. That’s like fishing in a barrel with a shotgun. Matt Gaetz’s nomination was DOA, dead on arrival, in the Senate. Representative Gaertz never learnt a fundamental rule of life: Be nice to those you pass on the way up because you might see them again on the way down. He had offended most members of Congress. He led the way in dumping Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House. He is known for bloviating and not legislating in the House. The media has little credibility where it needs it the most: President Trump, Republicans, conservatives, and the American people. Their columns, editorials, and op-eds are speaking to each other in an echo chamber. They’re rebuilding the echo chamber as I write. They applaud and bestow awards on each other in the echo chamber. Governor Newsom of California has long suffered from the delusion of becoming President. He called a special session of the California Legislature to solidify California’s values against the Trump administration: “to safeguard California values and fundamental rights in the face of an upcoming Trump Administration.” He wants another $25 million from the state legislature to fund litigation against the Trump Administration. It’s must be great to be the termed out governor of a one-party state. Illinois and New York have echoed Governor’s Newsom’s resistance. The media quotes President Trump’s words out of context. They take his strong words as policy positions, ignoring that President Trump is negotiating. They now cry out against President’s tariff promises, loudly asserting the tariffs will raise the cost of goods to Americans; that they will cause inflation. Where have they been the past four years? They know they screwed up royally in becoming a shill for the Democratic Party. They profess to do better, but they can’t – it’s their character. They have rarely their past mistakes in covering President Trump, much less apologized for them. Russia Gate, the Steele Dossier, the Mueller report, the recent Lawfare, they cheer it all on. They never apologize, or usually acknowledge all their past mistakes. The mainstream media lives in an echo chamber, not understanding their circulation and viewership is sinking, and apparently not caring. They ranks are quickly disappearing. The problem is deep-seated. Conservatives are not welcome in most journalism schools. The journalism students are not taught to be reporters, but as advocates for their beliefs. Los Angeles Times staffers wrote a memo in which they said their duty requires them “to be transparent and act in service of the public.” The owner of a media source has the right to control the policies, coverage, philosophy, and political perspective of the paper, magazine, cable or internet media. Employees, including journalists, who disagree have a choice; they can go along or resign. Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong is the owner and thus publisher of the Los Angeles Times. He has clearly stated he wants the LA Times to be profitable. Circulation is shrinking as an echo chamber of the left, while advertising dollars have migrated to the internet. Jeff Bezos, owner of the Washington Post, is unhappy with last year’s $77 million loss. Both media owners made their fortunes as entrepreneurs in a capitalistic society. The staff of their papers are employees – not owners or publishers. Their echo chamber is fighting a sinking ship, plunging readership and viewership. Creature of Habit.